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117-year coastal temperature record reveals warming trends
After compiling what may be the longest coherent coastal sea surface temperature record in North America, oceanographers from URI and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution have discovered some surprising and not-so-surprising trends.
The compilation and analysis of data by biological oceanographers Scott Nixon, Stephen Granger and Betty Buckley and Woods Hole staff Melissa Lamont and Brenda Rowell is described in a recent issue of Estuaries, a publication of the Estuarine Research Federation.
“We believe that the total set of measurements collected over a 117-year period at Woods Hole represents the longest coherent record of coastal ocean water temperature in North America,” said Nixon. “Our purpose in writing this article is to make the research community aware of this unique resource and to present some analyses of the data as they bear on the question of recent warming along the southern New England coast.”
The record shows that a warming trend in the late 1940s was reversed by a cooling during the 1960s. However, since the 1960s a sustained warming has persisted. During the 32 years between 1970 and 2002, the temperature has increased an average of 0.04 degrees Celsius per year.
The scientists also found that while the mean annual water temperature only exceeded 11 C five times during the period between 1886 and 1948, it surpassed this temperature 26 times in the 30-year period between 1970 and 2000.
Water temperatures during the 1990s averaged 1.2 C warmer over the annual cycle than they did during the decades between 1890 and 1970, while the winters averaged 1.7 C warmer and the summers 1.0 C warmer. Spring and fall temperatures were increased by 1.2 C and 0.8 C, respectively.
The scientists suggest that the dramatic increases in water temperature of recent decades have stimulated further research and speculation, notably with regard to the relative abundance of fish species, the suppression of the winter-spring bloom of phytoplankton, the acceleration of the seasonal development of ctenophore populations, a northern extension of the range of the oyster disease Dermo, and the decline of eelgrass.
“If the relatively modest temperature increases documented so far have been responsible for some of the major ecological changes attributed to them, the consequences of further warming, should it occur, will certainly be profound,” added Nixon.
By Lisa Cugini
